"Strangers passing in the street
By chance two separate glances meet
And I am you and what I see is me
And do I take you by the hand
And lead you through the land
And help me understand the best I can"

Thursday, January 28, 2010

World of 2026 PART 1

I was recently given this rather interesting job of envisioning the world and the current power structure sixteen years down the line in 2026. This background would be used as the background for a simulation of the Security Council of the UN with some 25 participating countries. The special areas of focus were to be the arms race in space and nuclear arms race, and with mention of the 25 participating nations.

The whole thing got rather unwieldy with too many factors being mentioned to explain the causality of the vents happening.

Don't really expect much of anyone to read through the whole goddamn thing, even the participants in the Model United Nations. But I hope that what I have written might raise some questions about the future. Not that anyone will really answer them, or can answer them , but questions asked are perhaps the last things that keep us alive.

Oh, and look out for the references! Most of the people mentioned are real life personalities in today's world, some very well-known (e.g.- Sarah Palin) and some not so much ,(e.g- Commandante Marcos, look him up- brilliant guy). The literary references are rather bland and childish, but anyhow...

So, with no more delay, welcome to the world of 2026 :-) :

A Security Council reform has been an
important and highly controversial topic at the
United Nations for many years. Although expansion
and reform of the veto powers were widely seen as
vital, agreement on a specific formula was
impossible. Chronic disputes raged over which
countries to add to the council and what would be
their powers.

It wasn’t until 2018 that a reform was actually
passed by resolution of the General Assembly
(voting 181/52/4). Under this resolution, the original
five permanent members remained on the council,
but their veto powers did not remain intact. UK’s veto power was taken away following the mass human rights violations proved in the International Court of Justice during the Civil War of 2017 which resulted with the withdrawal of Scotland from UK and the Commonwealth. In addition, three new-permanent seats and two additional
rotating members were appointed to the council.
Individually, these new members do not have
veto power. However if Great Britain and a 4-1 majority of the five countries are agreed on a point then they can veto a move. However, the vote of UK is compulsory for such a veto to take place.
The Council expanded to 25, and the number of non-permanent members to 15, rotating on a two-year basis. As approved by the reformed Security
Council for a five-year term beginning in 2022, the United Nations Secretary-General is A.C.Verghese, from Nigeria. The composition of the Security Council for
2026 is:

ORIGINAL PERMANENT MEMBERS (with
individual veto power)
- People’s Republic of China
- Republic of France
- Russian Federation
- United States of America
With collective VETO power:

SPECIAL PERMNENT MEMBER-
- United Kingdom

PERMANENT MEMBERS
- Germany
- India
- Brazil

ROTATING MEMBERS
- Mexico
- South Africa

With no VETO power:

NON-PERMANENT MEMBERS
-Iran
-Iraq
-Venezuela
-Saudi Arabia
-Austria
-Republic of Korea
-Israel
-Italy
-Japan
-Libya
-Spain
-Portugal
-Nigeria
-Pakistan
-North Korea



UN DEVELOPMENT UP TO 2028

Regional Organizations:
These have kept the same role of enhancing cooperation and communication amongst states in a specific region. However, internally some of them have had alterations regarding the participation of their members. Countries like Brazil and South Africa have taken almost total control of the OES (OrganizaciĆ³n de Estados Suramericanos) and the AU (African Union), respectively. Due to their growing power in world politics they have managed to be the greatest powers in their particular regional bodies. A similar situation occurred in the Arab League, with Libya changing their economic and diplomatic policies drastically and having an immense influence in the other member states’ policies, playing a role in mediating between the West and the Arab states in face of the new political dynamics.

The Security Council and the UN as a whole:
Due to veto power, polemic solutions are most likely to be dismissed, and with Brazil, South Africa, and India as permanent members of the SC, the non-permanent members have even less participation in this UN organ. Even though efforts are being made to maintain impartiality within the body, developed countries are gaining ground in the decision making process. However, the continued demands by the South Africa for entry to the so-called “Elite Three” and the considerable economic clout commanded by Japan and South Africa mean that the reflections of this rather polarized group doesn’t fall on the world as a whole. The leading powers of the world try to gain allies by any means, and this causes a marked division of blocks in most UN assemblies.

No comments:

Post a Comment